miércoles, 14 de abril de 2010
martes, 23 de febrero de 2010
La inflacion en Francia sube hasta el 1,2%
A pesar de la recesion, la inflacion esta empezando a hacer acto de presencia en toda Europa.
French Inflation Rate Jumps to One-Year High on Oil
Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- France's inflation rate rose in January to the highest in more than a year, driven by higher energy costs.
Consumer prices based on European Union methodology rose 1.2 percent from a year earlier, their biggest gain since December 2008, statistics office Insee said today. Economists expected an increase of 1.3 percent, based on 11 forecasts gathered by Bloomberg. Prices fell 0.2 percent from December.
The inflation rate is picking up after remaining negative from May through October as the worst global recession in more than half a century caused crude oil prices to slump from 2008's record high of $147 a barrel. Energy prices are now rising again as a growing global economy stokes demand.
"It's energy prices that are the determining factor," said Dominique Barbet, an economist at BNP Paribas in Paris.
Energy prices rose 6 percent from the previous year with the cost of oil products jumping 12.4 percent, the report showed. The price of crude ended January at about $73 a barrel, 82 percent higher than a year earlier.
Fresh food prices also climbed, gaining 0.8 percent, while rent and household services increased 2.5 percent.
French Inflation Rate Jumps to One-Year High on Oil
Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- France's inflation rate rose in January to the highest in more than a year, driven by higher energy costs.
Consumer prices based on European Union methodology rose 1.2 percent from a year earlier, their biggest gain since December 2008, statistics office Insee said today. Economists expected an increase of 1.3 percent, based on 11 forecasts gathered by Bloomberg. Prices fell 0.2 percent from December.
The inflation rate is picking up after remaining negative from May through October as the worst global recession in more than half a century caused crude oil prices to slump from 2008's record high of $147 a barrel. Energy prices are now rising again as a growing global economy stokes demand.
"It's energy prices that are the determining factor," said Dominique Barbet, an economist at BNP Paribas in Paris.
Energy prices rose 6 percent from the previous year with the cost of oil products jumping 12.4 percent, the report showed. The price of crude ended January at about $73 a barrel, 82 percent higher than a year earlier.
Fresh food prices also climbed, gaining 0.8 percent, while rent and household services increased 2.5 percent.
Nueva caida de los bancos
Los bancos espanoles estan sufriendo hoy un nuevo castigo por su elevada exposicion al sector inmobiliario.
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Rogoff esper impagos de la deuda soberana
Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Ballooning public debt is likely to force several countries to default and the U.S. to slash spending, according to Harvard University Professor Kenneth Rogoff, who in 2008 predicted the failure of big U.S. banks.
Following banking crises, "we usually see a bunch of sovereign defaults, say in a few years. I predict we will again," Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said at a forum in Tokyo today.
He said financial markets will eventually drive bond yields higher, and European countries such as Greece and Portugal will "have a lot of troubles." Global scrutiny of sovereign debt has risen as nations including Greece reveal fiscal deficits that have swollen in the wake of the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression.
"It's very, very hard to call the timing, but it will happen," Rogoff, co-author of a history on financial calamities, said in the speech. "In rich countries -- Germany, the United States and maybe Japan -- we are going to see slow growth. They will tighten their belts when the problem hits with interest rates. They will deal with it."
Concern about Greece's ability to fund its debt have roiled financial markets since the government said it had a budget shortfall of 12.7 percent last year, the highest ratio in the 27-member European Union.
More Than Russia
Greece's debt totaled 298.5 billion euros ($407 billion) at the end of 2009, according to the Finance Ministry. That's more than five times more than Russia owed when it defaulted in 1998 and Argentina when it missed payments in 2001.
The cost of protecting Greek sovereign debt from default surged in January, then declined this month as concern eased over the country's creditworthiness. Credit-default swaps on Greek sovereign debt have fallen to 356 basis points from 428 last month, according to CMA DataVision. That's up from 171 at the start of December.
"Greece just highlights that one of those risks is sovereign default," said Naomi Fink, a strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. Still, "it doesn't justify the situation where we're all in a panic and are going back to cash in the post-Lehman shock," she said, referring to the global credit freeze following the September 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
In an August 2008 interview, Rogoff said "the worst is yet to come in the U.S." and predicted the collapse of "major" investment banks.
'Out of Control'
Meanwhile Japan has the largest debt of all, with the Finance Ministry estimating borrowings of 973 trillion yen ($10.7 trillion) by March 2011, more than the economic output of the U.K., France and Italy combined.
Japanese fiscal policy is "out of control," said Rogoff, 56, who is a member of the Group of Thirty, a panel of central bankers, finance officials and academics headed by former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker.
Standard & Poor's last month warned that it may downgrade Japan's AA credit rating unless the government comes up with a plan to reduce the debt burden. Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa last week urged the government to show how it plans to repair its finances, and Finance Minister Naoto Kan aims to release a fiscal strategy by June.
Fink said Japan's debt is sustainable because more than 90 percent of the country's bonds are held by domestic investors, reducing the risk of capital flight. "For Japanese investors, JGBs are risk-free assets no matter what S&P ranks them," she said.
Rogoff's 2009 book "This Time Is Different," co-written with Carmen M. Reinhart, charts the history of financial crises in 66 countries.
To contact the reporter on this story: Aki Ito in Tokyo at aito16@bloomberg.net
Following banking crises, "we usually see a bunch of sovereign defaults, say in a few years. I predict we will again," Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said at a forum in Tokyo today.
He said financial markets will eventually drive bond yields higher, and European countries such as Greece and Portugal will "have a lot of troubles." Global scrutiny of sovereign debt has risen as nations including Greece reveal fiscal deficits that have swollen in the wake of the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression.
"It's very, very hard to call the timing, but it will happen," Rogoff, co-author of a history on financial calamities, said in the speech. "In rich countries -- Germany, the United States and maybe Japan -- we are going to see slow growth. They will tighten their belts when the problem hits with interest rates. They will deal with it."
Concern about Greece's ability to fund its debt have roiled financial markets since the government said it had a budget shortfall of 12.7 percent last year, the highest ratio in the 27-member European Union.
More Than Russia
Greece's debt totaled 298.5 billion euros ($407 billion) at the end of 2009, according to the Finance Ministry. That's more than five times more than Russia owed when it defaulted in 1998 and Argentina when it missed payments in 2001.
The cost of protecting Greek sovereign debt from default surged in January, then declined this month as concern eased over the country's creditworthiness. Credit-default swaps on Greek sovereign debt have fallen to 356 basis points from 428 last month, according to CMA DataVision. That's up from 171 at the start of December.
"Greece just highlights that one of those risks is sovereign default," said Naomi Fink, a strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. Still, "it doesn't justify the situation where we're all in a panic and are going back to cash in the post-Lehman shock," she said, referring to the global credit freeze following the September 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
In an August 2008 interview, Rogoff said "the worst is yet to come in the U.S." and predicted the collapse of "major" investment banks.
'Out of Control'
Meanwhile Japan has the largest debt of all, with the Finance Ministry estimating borrowings of 973 trillion yen ($10.7 trillion) by March 2011, more than the economic output of the U.K., France and Italy combined.
Japanese fiscal policy is "out of control," said Rogoff, 56, who is a member of the Group of Thirty, a panel of central bankers, finance officials and academics headed by former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker.
Standard & Poor's last month warned that it may downgrade Japan's AA credit rating unless the government comes up with a plan to reduce the debt burden. Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa last week urged the government to show how it plans to repair its finances, and Finance Minister Naoto Kan aims to release a fiscal strategy by June.
Fink said Japan's debt is sustainable because more than 90 percent of the country's bonds are held by domestic investors, reducing the risk of capital flight. "For Japanese investors, JGBs are risk-free assets no matter what S&P ranks them," she said.
Rogoff's 2009 book "This Time Is Different," co-written with Carmen M. Reinhart, charts the history of financial crises in 66 countries.
To contact the reporter on this story: Aki Ito in Tokyo at aito16@bloomberg.net
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lunes, 22 de febrero de 2010
Donde hay oportunidades hoy
Después de la subida de la mayoría de las bolsas del mundo, en especial las de países emergentes, es difícil encontrar oportunidades de inversión muy baratas. Creemos que las mejores oportunidades están en Japón, en las materias primas de agricultura y en las compañías grandes y bien establecidas (los Blue Chips).
La inversión en Japón. En Japón, después de casi 20 años de crisis en los que las familias y las empresas se han dedicado a ahorrar y las valoraciones no han parado de caer, nos encontramos con sociedades que tienen balances extremadamente sólidos a valoraciones ridículamente bajas. Muchas compañías japonesas cumplen los más estrictos criterios de inversión value y ofrecen un buen margen de seguridad.
Materias primas de agricultura. Una de las cuestiones más preocupantes para el inversor es protegerse de la inflación, esto es, la pérdida de poder adquisitivo del dinero. En otro apartado del Blog describimos por qué se produce este fenómeno tan dañino para el ahorrador, pero aquí nos limitamos a exponer una alternativa a tener el dinero en el banco: la inversión en materias primas. Las materias primas conservan su valor intrínseco con independencia de la cantidad de dinero que creen las autoridades monetarias y así, a medida que se imprime dinero, el precio de los materiales sube. No obstante, teniendo en cuenta que el inversor inteligente debe invertir siempre en activos que están baratos, por el momento descartamos la inversión en metales industriales (cobre, aluminio...) y en metales preciosos (oro, plata, platino) porque acumulan una revalorización considerable. A cambio creemos que es preferible invertir en materias primas agriculturales, pues sus precios están en mínimos históricos a la vez que la demanda empieza a crecer más que la producción y los inventarios están en mínimos.
Los Blue Chips: También es recomendable la inversión en las grandes compañías bien establecidas. La mayoría de estas sociedades prestan servicios vitales para la vida en sociedad (energía, comida, productos farmacéuticos, telecomunicaciones....). Están muy baratas: sus valoraciones cayeron tras la crisis de 2008 y no se han recuperado todavía. Sin embargo son compañías que cuentan con muchos recursos técnicos y humanos que les permiten afrontar los problemas de una honda recesión como la que atravesamos con garantías. Además presentan unos balances muy saneados, un perfil de generación de caja estable.
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